Weekly Market Recap

Week ended April 19

Market-moving news

Market-moving news

Market-moving news
Rally on hold

For the second week in a row, stocks were little changed overall, and the major indexes remained around 1% below their record highs achieved more than six months ago. April has seen relatively little movement so far, in contrast with stocks’ sharp gains in early 2019.

Market-moving news
Small-cap gap

Small-cap stocks underperformed their large-cap peers for the second consecutive week, as a small-cap benchmark, the Russell 2000 Index, fell more than 1%. The index is about 10% below its record high set in August 2018—a far bigger gap than for the large-cap indexes, which are just shy of their all-time peaks.  

Market-moving news
Low volume

As the stock market’s year-to-date rally has tapered off, so has trading volume. The daily average number of shares that changed hands over a 10-day stretch that ended Thursday was the lowest since a trading lull in September 2018, according to Dow Jones Market Data. 

Market-moving news
Calming trend

Stock market volatility has declined to its lowest level in six months, based on a gauge that measures investors’ expectations of short-term stock volatility. The Cboe Volatility Index has fallen about 52% year to date to a level that’s below its historical average.  

Market-moving news
Unhealthy sector

It’s been a chilly April for healthcare stocks. The sector fell nearly 3% on Wednesday, dropping into negative territory for the year and bringing its decline in April to nearly 7%. Concerns about tighter regulations on insurance companies and drugmakers have weighed on the sector.

  

Market-moving news
China's stability

Concerns about weakness in China eased as the government reported the nation’s economic growth rate held steady in the first quarter at an annual rate of 6.4%. That figure was slightly above most economists’ expectations. 

Retail revival

After declining in February, a gauge of U.S. retail sales climbed 1.6% in March, posting its biggest monthly gain since September 2017. The gain was broad, with sales rising for nearly every retail store category.  

GDP ahead

The government’s initial estimate of first-quarter GDP growth is likely to be the most closely watched economic report scheduled this week. Economists estimate the economy grew at an annual rate of 1.5% to 2.0%—down from a 2.2% figure in last year’s fourth quarter.  

The week ahead: April 22-26

Monday 

  • Existing home sales, National Association of Realtors

  •  

 

Tuesday

  • New home sales, U.S. Census Bureau

Wednesday

  • No major reports scheduled 

Thursday

  • Durable goods orders, U.S. Census Bureau

Friday

  • First-quarter GDP, initial estimate, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment
Important disclosures

Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.

The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS).  One hundred basis points equals one percent.

Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.

The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.

 

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Investment returns

Equities

U.S. equity size and style total returns (%) as of 4/19/19
1 week
-0.3-0.20.0 Large
-1.0-1.0-0.9 Mid
-0.8-1.2-1.6 Small
Value Core Growth
YTD
14.416.919.5 Large
16.819.322.9 Mid
15.116.618.0 Small
Value Core Growth
Index/market total returns as of 4/19/19 (%)
Close Week YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average 26,559.5 1.6 14.6
NASDAQ Composite Index 7,998.1 0.6 20.9
S&P 500 Index 2,905.0 -0.1 16.6
MSCI EAFE Index 1,920.8 0.4 13.1
Cboe Volatility Index 12.1 0.5 -52.4
International/developed (%)
1 week YTD
EAFE 0.4 13.1
Europe 0.3 14.9
France 0.8 15.8
Germany 1.3 13.6
Italy -0.4 17.3
Japan 0.9 7.7
Spain 0.4 11.7
Switzerland 0.0 13.8
U.K. -0.4 14.7
Emerging markets (%)
1 week YTD
EM 0.3 13.6
Brazil -0.5 5.5
China 0.0 22.2
India 0.5 8.2
Indonesia 2.6 7.3
Korea -0.7 8.4
Mexico 1.8 14.6
Russia 0.6 18.0
Taiwan 2.2 13.6
S&P 500 sectors (%)
1 week YTD
S&P 500 Index -0.1 16.6
Communication services 0.7 20.3
Consumer discretionary 0.8 21.2
Consumer staples 1.1 13.2
Energy -0.5 18.2
Financials 0.7 15.4
Healthcare -4.4 -0.2
Industrials 1.4 22.3
Information tech 1.3 26.1
Materials -0.5 15.0
Real estate -3.2 15.3
Utilities -1.6 9.1

Fixed income, currencies, and commodities

U.S. fixed-income style total returns (%) as of 4/19/19
1 week
0.10.10.2 Large
0.10.00.1 Mid Quality
0.00.00.2 Small
Value Core Growth
INTEREST-RATE SENSITIVITY
YTD
0.91.22.3 Large
1.02.09.4 Mid Quality
4.68.612.3 Small
Value Core Growth
INTEREST-RATE SENSITIVITY
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 4/19/19 (%)
END OF WEEK PRIOR YEAR END YTD CHANGE (BPS)
2 Yr 2.39 2.50 -11
10 Yr 2.56 2.68 -12
30 Yr 2.96 3.01 -5
2-10 spread 0.18 0.18 -0
10-30 spread 0.40 0.33 +7
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
1 week YTD
Aggregate 0.1 2.6
Bank loans 0.2 6.0
Convertible -0.8 13.2
Corporate 0.0 5.9
High yield 0.0 8.6
MBS 0.0 1.9
Municipal 0.0 2.7
Preferreds 0.2 9.4
TIPS 0.1 2.9
Treasury 0.1 1.4
Global bond total returns (%)
1 week YTD
EM Local -0.4 2.8
EMD USD 0.2 7.1
Global Agg -0.2 1.7
Global Agg Ex-U.S. -0.3 1.2
Multiverse -0.2 1.9
Commodities (%)
1 week YTD
BBG Com Ind -1.2 7.3
Oil (WTI) 0.1 38.9
Gold -1.4 -0.7
Currencies (USD) (%)
1 week YTD
EM FX 0.0 2.7
AUD -0.4 1.6
CAD -0.3 2.1
CHF -1.2 -2.7
EUR -0.6 -1.6
GBP -0.7 2.1
JPY 0.1 -1.9

U.S. economy

GDP

Jobs

Inflation

Ex-U.S.

Regions/countries

Fund industry overview

Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs ($B) as of 3/31/19

as tracked by Strategic Insight
MONTH 12 Month ASSETS
U.S. equity 2.8 30.7 8,144.2
Sector equity -5.3 -46.0 871.4
Allocation -3.9 -70.4 1,232.9
International equity 0.7 20.4 3,099.2
Alternative -1.6 -21.9 185.2
Commodities -0.1 -0.4 91.3
Taxable bond 33.0 156.7 3,877.9
Municipal bond 9.2 26.8 752.9
Total all long-term funds 33.1 58.3 18,272.6

Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows ($B) as of 3/31/19

MONTH 12 Month ASSETS
Intermediate-Term Bond 15.6 19.1 1,458.0
Large Blend 13.8 88.1 3,546.8
Foreign Large Blend 5.1 54.8 1,138.5
Ultrashort Bond 4.7 83.4 236.7
Short-Term Bond 4.6 17.7 404.4

Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows ($B) as of 3/31/19

MONTH 12 Month ASSETS
Large Growth -6.4 -38.3 1,706.2
Bank Loan -3.5 -19.1 118.4
Japan Stock -2.9 -7.0 29.0
Financial -2.1 -20.2 52.6
Long Government -2.1 14.3 55.3
Important disclosures

Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.

The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS).  One hundred basis points equals one percent.

Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.

The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.

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