Weekly Market Recap

Week ended April 13

Market-moving news

Market-moving news

Market-moving news
Comeback week

The major indexes climbed around 2% to 3% as first-quarter earnings reports began to come in and concerns about global trade  and technology stocks eased. The market’s big moves came in the middle of the week, as the Dow surged 429 points on Tuesday, fell 219 on Wednesday, and added 294 on Thursday.  

Market-moving news
Nearly even YTD

With the market’s latest gains, the S&P 500 and the Dow remained negative year to date but were within close range of possibly returning to positive territory. However, the two indexes were around 8% below their record highs reached before the market correction of early February.

 

Market-moving news
Oil recovery

After falling more than 4% in the previous week, prices of crude oil surged around 8% and eclipsed $67 per barrel, the highest level in more than three years. Data showed that excess global inventory of oil has recently diminished, due in part to production cuts by key oil-producing nations.

Market-moving news
Positive trade vibes

Tensions over trade eased somewhat as the United States and China pulled back from their recent cycle of retaliatory tariff threats. On Thursday, President Trump asked advisors to examine whether the U.S. should rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade pact that he had previously rejected.

Market-moving news
Tech rebound

Information technology stocks were among the biggest gainers of the week, as concerns about data privacy eased and the stocks recovered some of their recent losses. Tech’s comeback was reflected in the nearly 3% weekly gain for the NASDAQ, which is weighted more heavily in tech than other major indexes.

Market-moving news
Inflation watch

The latest monthly report on business inflation showed that prices rose more than expected, the latest sign that inflation pressures could be building across the broader economy. Meanwhile, minutes from the latest Federal Reserve Board meeting showed that officials were increasingly confident that inflation would rise to the Fed’s 2% target in coming months. 

Bank earnings

Some of the nation’s biggest banks reported first-quarter results in the kickoff to an earnings season that’s expected to be a strong one for the financials sector. Analysts expect the sector to report a 20% overall increase in earnings compared with last year’s first quarter, according to FactSet. That exceeds expectations of 17% earnings growth for companies across all sectors of the S&P 500.

 

 

Volatility dissipates

Although stocks made some big daily moves during the latest week, investors’ expectations of near-term volatility decreased markedly, as measured by the Cboe Volatility Index. The VIX dropped about 17% from its close of the prior week to a level that was in line with its historical average. 

The week ahead: April 9-13

Monday

  • Retail sales, U.S. Census Bureau
  • Business inventories, U.S. Census Bureau
  • Housing Market Index, National Association of Home Builders

 

 

 

 

Tuesday

  • Housing starts, U.S. Census Bureau
  • Industrial production and capacity utilization, U.S. Federal Reserve 

 

 

Wednesday

  • No major reports scheduled

Thursday

  • The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S.

Friday

  • No major reports scheduled
Important disclosures

Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.

The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve.

The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.

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Investment returns

Equities

U.S. equity size and style total returns (%) as of 4/13/18
1 week
1.82.02.1 Large
1.21.41.7 Mid
1.92.42.8 Small
Value Core Growth
YTD
-2.2-0.12.0 Large
-2.4-0.61.7 Mid
-1.31.33.7 Small
Value Core Growth
Index/market total returns as of 4/13/18 (%)
Close Week YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average 24,360.1 1.8 -0.9
NASDAQ Composite Index 7,106.7 2.8 3.2
S&P 500 Index 2,656.3 2.0 -0.1
MSCI EAFE Index 2,043.6 1.5 0.6
International/developed (%)
1 week YTD
EAFE 1.5 0.6
Europe 1.7 0.9
France 1.6 3.3
Germany 2.1 -0.7
Italy 2.3 10.4
Japan 0.4 0.7
Spain 1.7 0.7
Switzerland 1.1 -3.4
U.K. 2.4 0.7
Emerging markets (%)
1 week YTD
EM 0.7 1.5
Brazil -1.9 7.8
China 2.2 2.3
India 1.0 -3.4
Indonesia 2.1 -5.2
Korea 1.2 -0.5
Mexico 3.0 7.8
Russia -11.6 -3.5
Taiwan 0.8 5.4
S&P 500 sectors (%)
1 week YTD
S&P 500 Index 2.0 -0.1
Consumer discretionary 0.5 3.0
Consumer staples 0.3 -7.1
Energy 6.0 -0.3
Financials 1.1 -1.3
Healthcare 2.4 -0.5
Industrials 1.7 -2.0
Information tech 3.8 5.0
Materials 2.8 -3.5
REITs -1.1 -6.6
Telecom 0.7 -7.0
Utilities -1.3 -4.7

Fixed income, currencies, and commodities

U.S. fixed-income style total returns (%) as of 4/13/18
1 week
0.0-0.2-0.3 Large
-0.1-0.20.1 Mid Quality
0.30.81.5 Small
Value Core Growth
INTEREST RATE SENSITIVITY
YTD
0.2-1.0-4.2 Large
-0.3-1.2-3.4 Mid Quality
1.40.2-1.1 Small
Value Core Growth
INTEREST RATE SENSITIVITY
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 4/13/18 (%)
END OF WEEK PRIOR WEEK
2 Yr 2.36 2.26
10 Yr 2.82 2.78
30 Yr 3.03 3.02
2-10 spread 0.46 0.52
10-30 spread 0.21 0.24
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
1 week YTD
Aggregate -0.2 -1.7
Bank loans 0.2 1.4
Convertible 2.2 2.9
Corporate -0.1 -2.8
High yield 0.8 0.2
MBS -0.2 -1.4
Municipal 0.2 -0.9
Preferreds 0.1 -0.8
TIPS 0.2 -0.6
Treasury -0.3 -1.6
Global bond total returns (%)
1 week YTD
EM Local -0.6 2.8
EMD USD -0.3 -1.6
Global Agg 0.1 1.2
Global Agg Ex-U.S. 0.2 3.0
Multiverse 0.1 1.2
Commodities (%)
1 week YTD
BBG Com Ind 2.7 1.7
Oil 8.5 12.9
Gold 0.9 2.6
Currencies (USD) (%)
1 week YTD
EM FX 0.1 2.0
AUD 1.2 -0.6
CAD 1.4 -0.6
CHF -0.1 1.3
EUR 0.5 2.7
GBP 1.2 5.3
JPY -0.4 4.8

U.S. economy

GDP

Jobs

Inflation

Ex-U.S.

Regions/countries

Fund industry overview

Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs ($B) as of 3/31/18

as tracked by Strategic Insight
MONTH 12 Month ASSETS
U.S. equity -19.9 -64.1 7,618.0
Sector equity 2.6 10.5 861.7
Allocation -3.1 -32.8 1,257.7
International equity 14.0 263.6 3,258.4
Alternative 2.3 10.5 214.0
Commodities 1.4 6.8 97.3
Taxable bond 17.2 359.5 3,633.0
Municipal bond 1.5 34.1 699.1
Total all long-term funds 13.6 564.2 17,656.9

Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows ($B) as of 3/31/18

MONTH 12 Month ASSETS
Foreign large blend 14.0 146.5 1,216.2
Intermediate-term bond 6.4 155.5 1,381.3
Ultrashort bond 6.1 42.3 151.2
Diversified emerging markets 3.1 59.1 588.8
Bank loan 2.8 4.8 136.2

Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows ($B) as of 3/31/18

MONTH 12 Month ASSETS
Large blend -17.2 66.7 3,106.3
High-yield bond -3.4 -29.8 281.3
Europe stock -2.9 9.8 75.2
Large value -2.4 -44.3 1,169.3
Large growth -2.0 -52.9 1,601.6
Important disclosures

Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.

The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve.

The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.

Hide disclosure